CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-08-07T19:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-07T19:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32612/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The potential source is an M5.0 flare peaking at 2024-08-07T18:54Z from AR 3777. The start of the CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-08-07T17:23Z to 23:09Z. Dimming, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 193, and the eruption appears to be directed towards the southeast. A possible faint, separate halo component may also be seen in early frames of SOHO LASCO C2. Arrival signature (possibly the arrival of this CME, 2024-08-07T14:24Z CME and/or 2024-08-07T03:24Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field components, with B total reaching 11 nT. Solar wind speed increases from 380 km/s to 420 km/s and eventually to over 450 km/s. There is a temporary drop in density to below 1 p/cc (suspect bad density data), followed by an increase of density to just under 10 p/cc. The end of the arrival signature for this CME is possibly ~2024-08-11T12:00Z, where there is possibly an interaction region or sheath between both this ICME and the ICME following it (per LASSOS team's Carlos Peres Alanis).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-10T11:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-11T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32615/1
Model Inputs:
2024-08-07T19:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-15.0, Speed=375.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2024-08-08T03:19Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-11T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-10T08:10Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-12T10:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-10T20:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 57.92 hour(s)
Difference: -18.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M) on 2024-08-08T02:00Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement